Is Rafa really a clear favorite to win the US Open?

I find it ridiculous. Federer is a 5-time champion, and he should be the favourite no matter how badly he's been playing lately. Nadal hasn't even reached a final at the event. And I agree there are a lot of people who can take Nadal out on a hardcourt, anyone with a big serve, a huge forehand, like Soderling, Del Potro, Rod, Djokovic. I predict he'll go out in the semis or the quarters.